The aggravation of the situation in Karabakh conflict zone was quite predictable, Russian political scientist Sergey Markedonov told Public Radio of Armenia.
“What’s happening today could be expected. The increased number of incidents in Nagorno Karabakh and the aggravation of the situation have been taking place over the past few years, but the clashes of the past two days were the worst ever since the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement,” Markedonov said.
According to the political scientist, there are several reasons behind Azerbaijan’s decision to escalate the situation at this point. “First, Baku was trying to ‘test’ the military solution of the issue, after which they will resume the peace talks. The second option is more pessimistic – the negotiation process has failed and the military logic is starting to work,” he said.
Markedonov is confident that there are opportunities for a diplomatic solution, but the Co-Chairs should stop inaction as soon as possible.
He political scientist believes that Russia could take up a more decisive role in the conflict settlement and is confident that unlike Donbas or South Ossetia, the United States will not mind.
According to Segey Markedonov, the de-escalation of the Karabakh conflict can be very dangerous for Russia, as well. He considers Russia should protect the interests of its strategic ally in the conflict, but Azerbaijan is an important partner for Moscow, and the latter will hardly opt for breaking ties with Baku.
The further development of events is hard to predict, the political scientist says. He does not link the current escalation to the Russian-Turkish relations, but does not rule out that the tension creates some background.
