Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service says the likelihood of a large-scale attack on Armenia by the Azerbaijani side is not assessed a high. The conclusion is based on the analysis of various facts, information and phenomena summed up in its annual report on External Security Risks.
Meanwhile, the Intelligence Service says, in the absence of a peace agreement and interstate relations, the risk of local tensions and escalation on the border will remain a part of Azerbaijan’s policy of the threat of use of force. A potential guarantee for addressing this risk can be the smooth continuation of the delimitation and demarcation process, started in 2024.
“In this context, the task of our Service is to continuously assess whether Azerbaijan’s consistent
development and financing of various harmful narratives against the independence, sovereignty and
territorial integrity of Armenia aim to “legitimize” its intention to use force against Armenia. Among
those narratives are so-called “Western Azerbaijan and Western Azerbaijanis”, “Armenia’s militarization”,
“revanchism” and the “Zangezur corridor”,” the report reads.
According to the report, the delays in the process of normalization of relations and peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan significantly increase the uncertainty about the real intention of Azerbaijan for establishing lasting peace. In general, the absence of a peace agreement and diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan creates a real risk for keeping interstate relations tense, which can deteriorate under the influence of realignments or transformations of historical alliances in the region.
“The risks of preserving tensions in relations are increased also by Azerbaijan’s aggressive official rhetoric, attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan’s steps to impose its own unilateral demands in the negotiation process by adding various artificial topics. In 2025, the probability of continuous application of this toolkit remains high,” the Foreign Intelligence Service says.
“In 2025, Azerbaijan will maintain the pace of development of its own offensive military capabilities by
decreasing the time between the high-level political decision to initiate a military action and the launch of a military action on the ground. Within this framework, Azerbaijan will continue working on the transition to more mobile units, training of their reserve, acquisition and import of new armaments, as well as upgrade of military infrastructure,” the reports emphasizes.
