Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB-‘ with a Positive Outlook, citing the country’s strong international reserves, solid economic growth, and prospects for reduced geopolitical risks.
According to Fitch, Armenia’s economy grew by 7.1% in 2025, with growth expected to moderate to 5.2% in 2026, remaining well above the median for countries with a similar rating. The agency said the country’s dynamic ICT sector, the planned opening of the Amulsar gold mine, and major infrastructure projects could support medium-term growth.
Fitch noted that the U.S.-backed peace framework with Azerbaijan has significantly reduced the risk of near-term military escalation, although uncertainty remains over the completion of the peace process, including a possible constitutional referendum. At the same time, the agency warned that rising diplomatic tensions with Russia pose risks to Armenia’s economy due to its heavy reliance on Russian energy imports and trade.
The rating agency also highlighted Armenia’s declining public debt, strong banking sector, and record foreign exchange reserves, while pointing to persistent current account deficits and inflationary pressures as ongoing challenges.
Fitch said an upgrade could be driven by sustained progress in the peace process with Azerbaijan, easing tensions with Russia, continued high economic growth, and prudent fiscal management. Conversely, renewed geopolitical tensions, worsening external vulnerabilities, or a significant deterioration in public finances could put downward pressure on the rating.
