A renowned elections forecaster on Tuesday, October 29, confirmed his earlier prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win against former President Donald Trump in November’s presidential election, despite a pronounced tightening in national polls, Reuters reports.
“My September 5th prediction has not changed,” Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., told Reuters, “as I said, it doesn’t sway with the polls, the pundits, the ephemeral events of the campaign.”
Lichtman successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections using his election model based on 13 true-or-false questions, dubbed the “Keys to the White House” that ignore the views of political pundits and pollsters.
The party in power, currently the Democratic party, can lose 6 of the keys and still retain the White House. Lichtman said Harris fails on only four of the 13 keys.
The professor also said data from early voting in key battleground states supports his view that Harris will claim victory on November 5th.
The 2024 US election takes place on November 5th. A candidate needs to amass 270 electoral votes to achieve victory. With many states leaning either solidly Republican or Democratic, a handful of so called battleground or swing states is likely to decide the election.
