The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecast for the 37 countries in its region for 2021 to 5.5 per cent in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, published today.
EBRD forecasts 5.0 percent economic growth in Armenia in 2021 and expects the growth to raise to 5.3 percent in 2022.
In 2022, as economies recover, growth is expected to moderate to 3.8 per cent in the EBRD regions. This is 0.1 percentage point lower than expected in June 2021. However, forecasts are subject to high uncertainty, reflecting risks associated with the future path of Covid-19, possible worsening of external conditions and weaker growth in trading partners.
More widespread inflationary concerns may bring forward policy tightening in advanced economies, making debt burdens more expensive to service, the report warns. Travel restrictions and lingering fears of contagion continue to weigh on the outlook for the tourism sector. While bankruptcies have so far remained contained, further vulnerabilities may surface once policy support is reduced.
In eastern Europe and the Caucasus output is expected to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2021 and 2.9 per cent in 2022, reflecting strong results in the first half of the year, although there are signs of momentum slowing in the third quarter.