The poorest layers of society are involved in Iran protests, which means the rallies started as a social revolt, expert of Iranian studies Artyom Tonoyan says.
According to him, it’s a different issue that other forces later started directing the protests.
“Now we deal with a domestic political struggle and actually a conflict between reformists and conservatives,” he says.
Expert Tigran Davtyan notes that there have always been such protests of smaller scale in Iran, but have gone unnoticed. He attributes the current reaction to the fact that “there have been inciters.”
“Interests of some countries – e.g. Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States – overlap with those of protesters. The Islamic Republic of Iran has problems with all three,” he says.
Experts believe the Armenian community of Iran is not endangered. They consider that destabilization in Iran will negatively affect all countries in the region, including Armenia, but do not see such trends.
“I don’t see the danger today,” Artyom Tonoyan says. “The situation is rather stable, and I don’t see any threat to us in the given situation.”
It’s a different issue that Azerbaijan is ready and waiting for a proper moment to incite separatism in northern Iran.
Expert Ruben Minsayan is inclined to believe we’re going to witness the opposite. “Why wouldn’t Nakhijevan, Azerbaijan’s Shia separatists wish to join Iran, should it become a more democratic country?”
Experts say that despite the wave of protests has faded, revolts still continue in separate cities. They believe, however, that the developments are a cause of concern for the authorities, which will have to implement serious reforms both in the state administration system and the social-economic field.
Tigran Davtyan and Ruben Minasyan consider that reforms in Iran are inevitable and note that “Armenia will only benefit from a reformed Iran.”