Public Radio of Armenia
At a meeting with reporters Armenia’s ex-Ambassador to Canada, head of the “Modus Vivendi” research center Ara Papyan analyzed the ongoing developments in Ukraine.
According to him, a new cold war has started. “Ukraine has become the target, the main scene of struggle, where the interests of the West and Russia clash,” he said, adding that the events in Ukraine are important for other post-Soviet countries, as well.
“The unrest will not calm down easily,” Papyan said, adding that two classes have been formed inside the Ukrainian society. This split is visible even in the geographical dimension – Eastern and Western. Therefore, the analyst does not rule out the splitting of Ukraine into two parts.
According to him, it’s clear to everyone that there cannot be a united Ukraine either for the West, or for Russia. “It’s not a tragedy, if it’s the way to reach peace and stability. It will be a better option than a civil war,” he said. Ara Papyan is confident that force will not solve the problems in Ukraine.
Papyan considers any authorities should draw one lesson from the developments in Ukraine – elections should be treated as the best means to change power for the authorities to be more sensitive to the sentiments among the society.
According to his assessment, the social situation in Armenia is explosive, considering the issue of joining the Customs Union, which will be followed by rise of prices. He said a social uprising is possible with all deriving negative consequences.
Ara Papyan pointed to another circumstance. By announcing plans to join the Customs Union Armenia sent a message to the West that the decision is connected with the desire to avoid negative consequences. According to him, “the West will show it’s also capable of ensuring negative developments, and we see an example of this with regard to the Karabakh issue.”